Ukraine, since fall of USSR in 1991, remained the only, i believe, former Soviet Republic that did NOT use police force against peaceful political rally of citizens. That non-violent moratorium ended tonight. As of yesterday I was very skeptical about success of students rally in favor of integration with European Union, but today all changed... Why? The answer is 9 years old - Orange Revolution.
Back in year 2004 i was working on implementation of Oracle e-Business Suite at JSC "Khartsyzsk Tube Works" and rented apartment in downtown of Donetsk, Ukraine - stronghold of Party of Regions and hometown for presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych. My personal choice was with his opponent Viktor Youshchenko. Our implementation team was split between pro-Russian Yanukovych and pro-Western Yushchenko. But with colleagues with Mensa IQ (above 98th percentile of Ukraine population) all discussions were extremely intelligent and charged, but without even sign of rudeness or violence. Especially challenging were discussion with one of strongest IT leaders in modern Ukraine - back then strong and very logical advocate of Viktor Yanukovych. True nature of discussions were only about Yanukovych, with very little reference to Yushchenko, or in other words voting for Yanukovych or against him. Major economical power and probability of prosperity were on "blue" side (blue is official color of Party of Regions). The only things against Yanukovych was his personality - best described by his supposedly criminal nickname "Ham" (eng. Cad) - person of unprincipled and dishonored behavior. Mathematically we were arguing about probabilities in simple formula of expectation:
Future of Ukraine with Yanukovych = X*Economy - Y*Personality
where X was probability of driving economic prosperity to Ukraine, and Y is probability of destroying nation's morale and integrity.
Later that week i found the answer with taxi cub driver nicknamed Sotiy (100th in Russian) originally from Georgia. We met early in 2004 when train Kiev-Donetsk was late and it caused argument with driver of taxi cub #100 when I refused to pay for train delay. Later in cab on my way to Sarmat - one of leading beer manufacturer in Ukraine and back in early 2004 also client for Oracle e-Business Suite implementation, i overheard comment from CB radio that cab driver was 1st in queue for another client. So i asked him whether it was his Birthday. Driver was very intrigued and asked how i know. So i told him that back in 1998 when i moved from Uzhgorod to Kiev i had trouble finding a job and worked unofficially as taxi cab driver myself. Usually taxi drivers queue works in FIFO mode - First In, First Out. But when driver has birthday just for him queue is changed to LIFO - Last In, First Out. This simple change allows 10-15 times higher revenue on birthday day. Tone of conversation changed to friendly and, as birthday gift, i made arrangement to use cab #100 as preferred on daily commute to work.
So back to November 2004 proffered taxi cub Sotiy was driving me to work in my orange shirt when traffic jam stopped us. With all the Georgian attitude, honking and verbal comments, he started to maneuver to get us through slow traffic. But suddenly on my side of car a driver from parallel car pulled out the handgun and started to yell to let him go first. Sotiy, when noticed pointed at us handgun, lost patience completely. In censored and politically correct way he sounded like "When man pulls the gun he pulls the trigger!". After these words i got really scared. Looking at handgun i was only thinking "please do not pull the trigger", but was not able to say a word. How long arguments between Sotiy and driver with gun continued i don't know, but gunman did not pull the trigger and we drove first...
Back in school days i read story about ancient Roman commander who personally selected bodyguards by walking with them into dark room with chained tiger (or lion). General would then observe first instinct of candidate - grab the sword to fight or frighten and stood still.
That road incident gave me my answer about courage. There was no courage at all in wearing orange shirt to work...
At work I asked for transfer to Kiev. With context of discussion about orange shirt my manager approved it immediately. Next week i started project at TDC - post-warranty truck and agricultural gears repair company. Presence in Kiev allowed active participation in Orange Revolution.
Now, 9 years ago, the answer about risk to Ukraine, imposed by personality of Viktor Yanukovych, is answered loud and clear.
But beside the above formula, the most memorable quote from orange Revolution was "Money beat Evil" (in original "Бабло побеждает Зло"), which simply implied that any good cause movement will eventually loose without sustaining financial support.
All people in power needed to stop recent EU rally of students is wait. There was no financial support efficient to keep "fire" going. Majority of people i talked to were very skeptical about students success. But young Ukrainian students showed true courage and passed the ancient test for bodyguards - bodyguards of Ukrainian future.
Only miracle can now keep President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych in power.
best regards,
Roman Havrylyak
November 30th, 2013
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